The US economy has entered a new phase in its economic cycle. Just over a year ago, the country reeled from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. For much of the past year, business activity has been significantly curtailed due to the severity of the pandemic. However, in the past few weeks the economy has begun to largely reopen. The CDC has loosened travel restrictions, restaurants are expanding in-person dining, movie theatres and other entertainment venues are reopening, and Disneyland will open again at the end of April.

Despite the difficulties we as a country have faced over the past 12 months—from a divisive presidential election and civil unrest arising from racial tensions to the reverberating effects of the global pandemic— we are optimistic about the immediate future. Because of the global pandemic, we have seen our clients having a renewed focus on what is important.

The economy continued to recover from one of the worst economic contractions ever. Economic growth as measured by GDP expanded by a historic 33.4 percent in the third quarter and is on track to produce mid-single-digit-growth in the fourth quarter. However, the economy falls short of its pre-crisis levels, with GDP still 3.5 percent below where it ended in 2019. The labor market remains depressed because of the pandemic, with nearly 10 million more people out of work than at the beginning of 2020.

After experiencing unprecedented disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. economy remains on track to recovery even as the threat of the virus lingers. Economic data frequently beat expectations and growth, as measured by Gross domestic product (GDP), and may reach 30 percent annualized for the third quarter according to the Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecast. Consensus GDP forecasts, as measured by Bloomberg, steadily increased from 20 percent to 25 percent in September.

The U.S. economy for 2020 has experienced unprecedented disruptions due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Heading into the new year, the economy was in a strong position, with unemployment at the lowest level in fifty years, high consumer confidence, and nearly all sectors of the economy expanding.

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted all areas of our lives from travel to dining to sports gatherings. Almost no aspect of our daily lives has proven immune to the new normal created by the coronavirus. Financial markets and the value of almost all assets have been reset, mostly lower, during this period of uncertainty. These reduced valuations present attractive opportunities for those seeking estate and wealth transfer opportunities to mitigate the impact of the federal transfer tax system.

The US economy started off the year on a positive note before social distancing restrictions in response to COVID-19 led to the start of a sharp deceleration. The unemployment rate stood at a 50-year low while wage growth remained comfortably range-bound thereby not threatening profit margins. Progress on the US-China trade deal provided some clarity that buoyed business confidence late last year. Globally, growth exhibited signs of improvement early in 2020 but that changed quickly.

Despite lingering volatility, the past week provided modest relief as US stocks bounced back and finished the week higher. The indiscriminate selling and extreme panic of the prior week gave way to bargain hunting. More economically sensitive stocks fared better during the rebound compared to defensive sectors and investment grade corporate bonds also improved, both encouraging news. Such signs of risk-taking are the first signals that a bottom in the market is forming.

Over the past weekend, the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered short-term interest rates by a full percentage point and announced a restart of bond purchases. Additional rate cuts were expected and while a restart of bond purchases was a possibility, the timing and magnitude of both the rate cuts and bond purchases, $700 billion, were somewhat of a surprise. The Fed sent a powerful message that it will do what it can, and quickly, to assist the economy and financial markets..

The tough times that global markets were experiencing due to the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus) worsened this past weekend as a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia resulted in sharply lower oil prices. The news could not have a come at a worse time for already nervous markets and the combination of events is testing investors’ patience.

It’s been a tough week. Despite a slowdown in the number of coronavirus cases in China, cases have increased globally, and new cases have been confirmed in the United States. Countries are making progress with containment, but those efforts are likely to result in a reduction in economic activity, adding to market uncertainty.